Ohio Senate Predictions & Polls

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For over a century in American politics, Ohio reigned as the preeminent bellwether state. Since 1896, the party that won Ohio, won the White House, in all but three election cycles. At least for the foreseeable future, Ohio is no longer poised to play such a decisive role in presidential elections, as the state has lurched right since President Obama won it in 2012. It voted for Donald Trump by 8%, even as Joe Biden claimed the Presidency with 306 electoral votes.

However, the 2024 election cycle will give Ohio another chance to play its historic role of determining the nation’s direction, but this time around, it will be for the Senate. Senator Sherrod Brown – known just as much for his grizzled voice as his laser focus on blue-collar workers and “the dignity of work” - is running for re-election.

He’s now become something of a survivor in a state that has rejected Democrats in recent statewide elections. Along with President Obama, Brown is the only non-judicial Democratic candidate to win a statewide election since 2010. Brown has thrived on his ability to win cross-party support. The central question is whether Republican-leaning voters, who like Brown personally, will once again cast a vote in his favor, or will they vote for their preferred national party?

Our Senate Forecast predicts Brown’s chances of securing another victory in Ohio against the Republican Candidate, Bernie Moreno. In 2022, RacetotheWH correctly called more Senate races than any other forecaster and came within one seat of perfectly predicting the final balance in the House of Representatives.