2024 New Hampshire Governor Race Predictions & Polls

Our Governor Forecast predicts the outcome of the election using a data-driven model that factors in polling, historic trends, candidate quality, and fundraising. Almost everything on the page is interactive and shows how the projection changes depending on which candidates make it to the general election.

Scroll further down the page to read the latest polling for both the general election and primary, and to learn more about New Hampshire's recent political history.

Last election cycle, RacetotheWH led all forecasters in calling the highest percentage of both Governor and Senate races correctly.

Background on the Race

Democrats got a lucky break when popular Republican Governor Chris Sununu opted not to seek a fifth two-year term as Governor. Sununu is an electoral juggernaut that has thrived in an era where the Democrats have otherwise had an advantage in statewide races. In 2022, Democrats won the Senate race and the combined congressional vote by more than 9%, and Sununu still managed to win re-election by more than 15%. 

Instead, the New Hampshire Governorship is now one of the nation's top battleground races. At first glance, it would appear Democrats would have a natural edge thanks to their recent victories in national races in NH - but New Hampshirites love to split their ticket, and the GOP has actually retained a slight advantage in state races. They control the Governorship and both the State House and State Senate.

There are two serious Democrat contenders for the Governorship - the first of which is Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. Craig is running on a platform of expanding economic opportunities for New Hampshire families and has championed expanding affordable housing and improving public education. Her opponent in the primary is New Hampshire Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, who has made protecting reproductive rights the cornerstone of her campaign, and argues her experience on the Executive Council will let her enter office with close relationships throughout the state. 

In the Republican primary, former Senator Kelly Ayotte is the frontrunner for the nomination and is campaigning on protecting public safety and preventing New Hampshire from becoming more like neighboring Massachusetts. Ayotte is seeking a return to public office after losing one of the closest Senate races of the millennium in 2016 to then-Governor Maggie Hassan. The other serious contender is NH Senate President Chuck Morse. Morse says he will protect the “New Hampshire advantage” by preserving low taxes and has touted his record of working with Governor Sununu to pass legislation that expanded clean drinking water and increased mental health funding.