New York 3rd Special Election - Forecast & Predictions

After a year of scandals, drama, and indictments, George Santos became just the sixth member of Congress in American history to be expelled from the House. The election to replace Santos will be held on February 13th, in one of the more competitive districts in the nation. His Long Island District voted for Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, before supporting Republican candidates in the 2022 election cycle for Governor and Congress.

The special election has implications far beyond its role as the closing chapter of George Santos’s Congressional misadventures. In 2024, Democrats need to flip only five seats to retake the majority in the House. They could narrow this to just four seats if emerge victorious in the NY-3 Special Election.

The Democratic nominee is former Congressman Tom Suozzi, who left Congress to run for Governor in 2022. He has a history of winning the district, including beating George Santos in 2020 by over 10%. Republicans have nominated Mazi Melesa Pilip, a Nassau County Legislative member. Pilip was born in Ethiopia, and served in the Israeli Defense Force before emigrating to the United States.

Our House Forecast projects the chance both parties have of winning the New York 3rd Special Election. Last cycle, we came just one seat short of perfectly predicting the final number of seats each party would win. In addition to benefitting from a bit of good luck, our forecast succeeded because it was relentlessly tested on 2,000 Congressional elections held since 2010 to ensure it was as accurate as possible. We worked hard to ensure it had as little bias towards either party as possible.