Nevada Senate Predictions & Polls

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The Silver State has been the white whale for the GOP in Senate and Presidential elections. Almost every election cycle, they’ve had a clear shot at winning Nevada – but victory itself has proven elusive.

They’ve lost the state in eight of the last nine combined Presidential and Senate races since 2006, often by painfully close margins. Four times, the race was decided by less than 2.5%.

Anyone counting the GOP out in Nevada is making a mistake. Republicans have actually performed better in Nevada in recent presidential elections than they have in the national popular vote. However, Senator Jacky Rosen could prove difficult to beat. She successfully vanquished GOP Senator Dean Heller in 2018 by a margin of nearly 5%. In 2024, Rosen will have the advantage of incumbency.

Our Senate Forecast predicts Rosen’s chances of securing a second term. Her projection varies considerably depending on which candidate Senator Rosen ends up facing in the general election, so our forecast shows our projection for every potential matchup.

Every day, the forecast is updated with the latest information. Once the race for the nomination heats up, we will add a NV GOP Primary Forecast. In 2022, RacetotheWH correctly called more Senate races than any other forecaster and came within one seat of perfectly predicting the final balance in the House of Representatives.