Arizona Senate Predictions & Polls

Looking for the National Senate Forecast? Click here

For generations, Republicans had reigned supreme in the Grand Canyon state. Beginning with Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952 and ending with Trump in 2016, the GOP captured the state in 16 out of 17 Presidential elections. However, their dominance began to be challenged at the start of the new millennium, and over the last twenty-four years, Arizona has been rapidly hurdling towards the center of the political center in American politics, driven by an exodus of white college-educated voters from the Republican party, rising turnout from Latinos and Native Americans, and the explosive population growth of Phoenix.

After losing eight straight Senate races, the Democratic party broke their cold streak in 2018 when Democrat Kirsten Sinema won retiring Senator Jeff Flake's old seat - a feat repeated twice by Astronaut Mark Kelly in a special election in 2020 and a regular election in 2022. Now it's the GOP hoping to reverse their fortune in 2024 in a newly open Senate seat that is ripe for the taking. If they can flip Arizona, they'll be a heavy favorite to win a Senate majority.

The GOP will have to beat Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego. Gallego immigrated to America from Mexico with his mom when he was just a kid, and grew up below the poverty line. Gallego got into Harvard and joined the military after 9/11 to serve in Iraq. While Gallego has performed well in Congressional elections, this will be the first time he faces a competitive general election against a well-funded opponent.

Republicans will nominate their Senate candidate on July 30th in a race between TV Reporter Kari Lake and Sheriff Mark Lamb. Kari Lake rose to national prominence during a heated 2022 Governor race that she narrowly lost by 0.7%. Lake is a strong ally of former President Trump and is well-liked among the MAGA wing of the GOP, a strength that at least in 2022 didn’t carry over to independents, who she lost by 7%. Lake's opponent, the Pima County Sheriff, has made securing the border his central focus on the campaign trail and touts his experience working closely with border control.

Our Senate Forecast predicts the general election and tracks the latest polls. We’re also predicting the Arizona GOP Primary (Gallego faces no serious challenger). In 2022, RacetotheWH correctly called more Senate races than any other forecaster and came within one seat of perfectly predicting the final balance in the House of Representatives.