House 2024 Forecast & Predictions

In 2022, Republicans fell short of their lofty expectations, but they still successfully flipped nine seats in the House, winning enough to secure a majority and the Speaker's gavel. Now, they will have to defend it against Democrats, who have 213 seats - just five short of the 218 seats they would need to take back control.

The Democratic Party's hopes were boosted by a series of favorable court decisions this summer that could give them an additional seat in Alabama, Florida, and Louisiana. They’ll also be targeting many of the 18 Congressional Districts that voted for President Biden in 2020 but went on to vote for a Republican in 2022. The Republican party had a proper red wave localized to California and New York, and they now will have to defend eleven seats that Biden won in those two states alone. Democrats' pathway to a majority will be far easier if they can prevent a Republican encore. The Republican party has its own slew of offensive opportunities spread across the country from Colorado and Pennsylvania, and they'll likely need to convert at least some of them to hold onto the House.

Our House Forecast projects the chance both parties have of winning the majority. It uses data-driven projections to predict the outcome of all 435 races. Every day, it runs 20,000 simulations of the election.

Last cycle, we came just one seat short of perfectly predicting the final number of seats each party would win. In addition to benefitting from a bit of good luck, our forecast succeeded because it was relentlessly tested on 2,000 Congressional elections held since 2010 to ensure it was as accurate as possible. We worked hard to ensure it had as little bias towards either party as possible. Despite running tests in a decade with two historic polling misses, it only had a 0.13% bias towards Democrats on average when projecting the final margin of victory in each race. For any questions on the House Forecast, email RacetotheWH founder Logan Phillips at Logan.Phillips@racetothewh.com.

Update - February 6th: On February 6th, we added fundraising to our model. We’ve been careful to add it only to races where both likely nominees have been running since at least August 1st. This early on, we give a boost in our fundraising score to challengers, who typically are getting outraised by a lot this early on, but will start to narrow the gap as we get closer to the election. Our forecast uses individual donations, which excludes money raised from self-funding and super PACs, because they have more predictive value, and signal a campaign's ability to mobilize voters and connect with grassroots support.

While you are at RacetotheWH, be sure to also check out our forecast for the NY-3 Special Election to Replace George Santos.