Mississippi 2023 Forecast & Polls

Governor Tate Reeves won his election by just 5% the first time he ran in 2019, a surprisingly close race in a state where Republican victories are routine and usually well above 20%. That has left Mississippi Democrats hopeful that they might be able to topple Reeves in 2023, especially now that the Governor’s approval rating has declined thanks to an emerging healthcare crisis that threatens to close half of rural hospitals in the state.

They’ve nominated the much younger cousin of Elvis Presley, Brandon Presley, who serves on the Mississippi Public Service Commission. Presley is arguing for expanding Medicaid to save those hospitals - reminiscent of the successful campaigns run by red-state Democratic Governors like John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly. On other issues- Pressley sounds different than most Democrats, and he's running as a social conservative who supports cutting taxes.

Governor Tate Reeve is running on a results-oriented campaign message - he's championing Mississippi's declining unemployment rate and improved standing in national education ratings. The Reeves campaign has also launched attack ads painting Presley as no different from national Democrats like Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton - a sound strategy in Mississippi, one of the reddest states in the nation. The great challenge for Presley is that Reeves has a bigger bullhorn thanks to his financial advantage. That will make it hard for Presley to effectively stake out a unique identity as a conservative democratic supporting investment in health care. We should not that Reeve’s financial edge has been reduced, thanks to a surprisingly strong fundraising stretch by Presley. Since July, Presley has easily outraised Reeves.

Our Governor Forecast predicts Reeve’s chances of securing another victory in Mississippi. In 2022, RacetotheWH correctly called 94.4% of Governor races, tied with FiveThirtyEight and Split-Ticket for the best record of any forecaster. For any questions on the Governor Forecast, email RacetotheWH founder Logan Phillips at Logan.Phillips@racetothewh.com.