Texas Republican Presidential Primary Polls and Predictions

Right after the first slot of states, the nation’s two biggest states will hold their votes, and it could provide Donald Trump an opportunity to lock up the race early - or give his challenger a chance to prove that this is going to be a competitive election cycle. Here, we are tracking all of the latest polling, and running an election forecast that aims specifically to show what would happen if the election were tomorrow based on the current polling. Keep in mind that the polls will change significantly by election day, and this page is updated daily.

Like California, Texas is a treasure trove of delegates - and winning enough delegates is the key for presidential candidates to win the nomination without a brokered convention. The magic number in Texas is 50% - that’s the number Trump’s opponents need to hold him under. Out of the state’s 162 delegates, 148 are awarded based on the vote in each Congressional district, with 3 delegates for each district. If a candidate breaks 50%, they get all 3 delegates in the district.

The same is true for the 48 delegates awarded based on the statewide vote. While Trump would be favored on paper - if another candidate surges at just the right time and eclipses him, they could win the lion's share of the delegates each by winning just over 50%, and make this a true 1 v. 1 race nationwide provided they had similarly strong results elsewhere on Super Tuesday.

In 2022, RacetotheWH called the highest percentage of Senate and Governor races correctly of any forecaster and came within one seat of perfectly predicting the GOP’s final number of seats in the House. This election cycle, we have launched our polling for the national GOP Primary, and Presidential General Election Polling.

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